The home nations have outperformed South Africa and Australia for the better part of three seasons and will head into the 2019 World Cup with a psychological edge, writes JON CARDINELLI.

Have the northern nations closed the gap between themselves and the southern heavyweights? It’s an important question less than a year out from the 2019 World Cup.

To be fair, Ireland are the only individual side from the northern hemisphere that has beaten the All Blacks in this World Cup cycle. On that basis, an argument can be made for them narrowing the gap between themselves and the world’s No 1-ranked team.

And yet, when we take the All Blacks out of the equation and consider the results between the home nations and South Africa, Australia and Argentina since 2016, it becomes clear just how far the northern hemisphere sides have come and just how dangerous they could be at the 2019 World Cup.

SOUTH vs NORTH WIN% (2016-2018)
Rugby Championship teams vs Six Nations teams

	2016	2017	2018
ARGENTINA	33%	17%	0%
AUSTRALIA	38%	40%	33%
NEW ZEALAND	86%	67%	83%
SOUTH AFRICA	33%	67%	50%

The northern nations were a laughing stock at the global tournament staged in England in 2015. The hosts failed to progress beyond the pool phase, while France, Ireland, Scotland and Wales all bowed out in the quarter-finals.

When the Springboks competed against the All Blacks and when the Pumas fronted the Wallabies in the semis, most took it as a sign that the southern hemisphere sides were light years ahead of their northern counterparts.

Fast forward to the present. The November internationals and indeed the 2018 Test season are things of the past.

COMMENT: Misfiring Boks crash in Cardiff

Ireland have finished the year with a series win in Australia as well as a convincing victory against the All Blacks. England recently claimed their sixth successive win over Australia. They beat the Boks home and away.

Wales beat the Boks twice, and scored their first victory against the Wallabies in 10 years. Scotland contributed to the northern cause in the sense that they beat Argentina home and away. France also picked up a win against the Pumas.

It’s always going to be tough to argue that the north is superior to the south when the No 1-ranked side in the world, the All Blacks, hails from the latter. And yet there is evidence to suggest that all four of the Rugby Championship teams – even New Zealand – have lost their mental hold on the better Six Nations outfits.

Consider the year-to-year win records in the table above. The All Blacks’ dip in 2017 is down to their series draw against the British & Irish Lions, a composite team from the north.

The Wallabies have failed to beat England once over the past three seasons. They’ve lost regularly to Ireland and twice to Scotland (home and away in 2017) during this period.

The Boks suffered a historic loss to Italy in 2016. They’ve blown hot and cold against England and Ireland, although they have dominated all fixtures against France.

The Boks haven’t managed to beat Wales in the four Tests during this period, though. It’s hard to believe that prior to 2014, the Boks had only ever lost once to the Dragons. These days, it’s the Welsh who enjoy a mental hold on the Boks.

The table below shows how the southern heavyweights, particularly New Zealand and South Africa, used to boss their northern opponents in the period between 2012 and 2015. The south, as a collective force at least, has been in decline since the last World Cup.

SOUTH vs NORTH WIN% (2012-2015)
Rugby Championship teams vs Six Nations teams

	2012	2013	2014	2015
ARGENTINA	50%	20%	33%	100%
AUSTRALIA	75%	63%	57%	100%
NEW ZEALAND	86%	100%	100%	100%
SOUTH AFRICA	83%	100%	71%	100%

The south won 11 out of 26 Tests against northern opposition over the course of the 2018 season for a collective record of 42%. Take New Zealand’s five-from-six record out of the equation, and the overall win record drops to 28%.

Clearly the home nations have what it takes to challenge, and in many instances overcome the Boks and the Wallabies.

Ireland, the Grand Slam champions and undisputed kings of the north, have beaten the All Blacks twice in the space of three years. They will have every reason to believe that victory against New Zealand is possible in a World Cup playoff meeting next year. They will go into every other game against southern opposition as favourites.

Many are already predicting that the next global tournament will be the most competitive one yet. Indeed, it appears to be the only safe prediction at this stage.

There was a time when Argentina were expected to beat France. That said, how will the Pumas’ recent loss in Lille affect the Pumas’ confidence ahead of their World Cup pool meeting with France next year?

Australia have lost regularly to England, and were outplayed by Wales recently. They have every reason to be concerned ahead of the World Cup group matches against those teams in Japan.

The Boks did well to beat Scotland recently, a team they could meet at the quarter-final stage. It’s more likely, though, that the Boks will face Ireland in the first round of the playoffs.

England won the northern hemisphere’s one and only World Cup title in 2003. In the buildup to that tournament, Clive Woodward’s charges scored important wins over Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, and then went on to claim massive wins against the Wallabies and Boks at the World Cup itself.

Ireland will go into the 2019 showpiece with a similar belief, having beaten all four of the big southern hemisphere sides. England and Wales will have cause to believe that they can best the better southern teams, and the ever-improving Scotland may cause some big upsets.

The north’s rise has been good for the game, and could make for an unforgettable World Cup.

Photo: Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile via Getty Images