JON CARDINELLI looks at the forwards used by the Springboks since 2018 and why Rassie Erasmus faces a healthy selection headache ahead of the World Cup squad announcement.

On Monday, we looked at the backline options used by Erasmus over the past two seasons. The Bok coach will announce his 31-man squad in Johannesburg on Monday, and it will be interesting to see who makes the cut and what kind of balance he favours in the group.

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A total of 58 players have been used across 18 Tests. Four fullbacks, seven wing options, six centres, three flyhalves and five scrumhalves were utilised in the back division. Six hookers, nine props, and seven locks were used up front, and as many as 13 players featured in the back row.

In terms of the latter, Erasmus faces a healthy headache. As seen below, the Bok coach is somewhat spoiled for choice.

BACK ROW	TESTS	STARTS	RWC SELECTION
KWAGGA SMITH	4	3	LIKELY
OUPA MOHOJE	1	1	UNLIKELY
DAN DU PREEZ	1	1	UNLIKELY
SIKHUMBUZO NOTSHE	6	1	UNLIKELY
SIYA KOLISI	14	14	CONFIRMED
JEAN-LUC DU PREEZ	3	1	UNLIKELY
DUANE VERMEULEN	9	9	LIKELY
PIETER-STEPH DU TOIT	12	11	LIKELY
FRANCOIS LOUW	11	4	LIKELY
WARREN WHITELEY	6	6	INJURED
MARCO VAN STADEN	3	0	SHORTLIST
RYNHARDT ELSTADT	2	2	LIKELY
MARCELL COETZEE	2	1	INJURED

Erasmus has chopped and changed his back row many times over the past two seasons. The unavailability of Duane Vermeulen – who missed the 2018 Rugby Championship due to a club commitment in Japan – influenced a few back-row selections, as did Warren Whiteley’s ongoing struggle with injuries.

What we’ve learned during this period is that Pieter-Steph du Toit’s best position is blindside flank. If all three men are fit, Siya Kolisi, Du Toit and Vermeulen should comprise the first-choice back row at the World Cup.

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Erasmus faces a tough call regarding who to include as cover. The experience and versatility of Francois Louw should have the Bath man going to another World Cup, yet one of Kwagga Smith and Rynhardt Elstadt may not make the cut. Alternatively, Erasmus can include both Smith and Elstadt in a loose-trio group of six.

On Monday, it was confirmed that Marcell Coetzee had been ruled out of the tournament due to an ankle injury. Coetzee would have been able to cover all three back-row positions.

LOCKS	TESTS	STARTS	RWC SELECTION
JASON JENKINS	1	1	UNLIKELY
PIETER-STEPH DU TOIT	5	4	LIKELY
MARVIN ORIE	3	0	SHORTLIST
RG SNYMAN	15	6	LIKELY
FRANCO MOSTERT	13	13	LIKELY
EBEN ETZEBETH	11	10	LIKELY
LOOD DE JAGER	4	2	LIKELY

Pieter-Steph du Toit captained the Boks from the lock position when South Africa faced Wales in June last year. It would be a surprise to see Du Toit in the second row at the World Cup, however, given Erasmus’ existing second-row options. Lood de Jager, Eben Etzebeth, Franco Mostert and RG Snyman could all travel to Japan.

South Africa is blessed with outstanding options in the second row. Marvin Orie and Jason Jenkins enjoyed good seasons with their respective franchises in the Super Rugby tournament. JD Schickerling, who toured with the Boks last November but didn’t win a Test cap, may find himself in the international mix next year.

PROPS	TESTS	STARTS	RWC SELECTION
OX NCHE	1	1	UNLIKELY
WILCO LOUW	8	2	SHORTLIST
THOMAS DU TOIT	10	1	SHORTLIST
STEVEN KITSHOFF	16	8	LIKELY
BEAST MTAWARIRA	12	8	LIKELY
FRANS MALHERBE	14	13	LIKELY
VINCENT KOCH	6	1	LIKELY
TREVOR NYAKANE	3	2	LIKELY
LIZO GQOBOKA	2	0	SHORTLIST

No front-row player has been allowed to rest on his laurels. As the numbers above suggest, Steven Kitshoff and Beast Mtawarira have enjoyed a healthy battle for the No 1 jersey. This year, Lizo Gqoboka has been pushing both of them to lift their respective games.

Frans Malherbe, the starting No 3 at the 2015 World Cup, has been overtaken in the pecking order by Trevor Nyakane and Vincent Koch. Nyakane may be backed to start in Japan, and will also serve as the swing-prop in the squad, given his ability to cover loosehead and tighthead.

If Nyakane succumbs to injury, Erasmus will call on Thomas du Toit, who has been used at loosehead and tighthead over past two seasons – with a view to serving as another swing-prop option at the World Cup.

HOOKERS	TESTS	STARTS	RWC SELECTION
CHILIBOY RALEPELLE	2	2	UNLIKELY
AKKER VAN DER MERWE	3	0	UNLIKELY
BONGI MBONAMBI	15	5	CONFIRMED
SCHALK BRITS	3	1	CONFIRMED
MALCOLM MARX	12	10	CONFIRMED
SCARRA NTUBENI	1	0	SHORTLIST

Erasmus has already confirmed that the three hookers in the current squad will travel to the World Cup. One would assume that Scarra Ntubeni, who made his debut this past Saturday, will be brought into the mix in the event of injuries.

Malcolm Marx was arguably the world’s best hooker in 2017. When Marx broke down with an injury ahead of the Test series against England last year, Bongi Mbonambi was elevated to the starting lineup and made the most of the opportunity.

The numbers suggest that Marx is Erasmus’ preferred No 2. That said, Mbonambi has shown that he can add value as a starting option.

Schalk Brits was brought out of retirement in early 2018 to play a unique role in the set-up. The 38-year-old has been influential behind the scenes. While he has played only three Tests during this period, he has certainly brought a new dimension to the attacking approach.

Akker van der Merwe and Chiliboy Ralepelle have fallen down the pecking order. One wonders if Erasmus will sound the pair out if there are serious injuries at the World Cup.

The Bok coach has attempted to bring Bismarck du Plessis back into the group at various stages over the past two seasons – with no success. The veteran of three World Cups would certainly be an asset to the squad if there was a crisis at hooker and Erasmus needed an experienced player to plug the gap.

ERASMUS’ MOST-USED FORWARDS*
8 Duane Vermeulen
7 Pieter-Steph du Toit
6 Siya Kolisi (c)
5 Franco Mostert
4 Eben Etzebeth
3 Frans Malherbe
2 Malcolm Marx
1 Steven Kitshoff

*According to Test starts over 18 games in 2018 and 2019

Photo: EPA/KIM LUDBROOK/BPP