Where you should put your money on the international matches this weekend, according to MARK KEOHANE.
Wales vs Australia
Wales showed in Nelspruit against the Springboks that they're a dangerous side. They led the Boks in their own backyard for a majority of the 80 minutes, before being undone at the death. This despite missing players like Leigh Halfpenny and captain Sam Warburton.
The Wallabies mixed the good with the bad against the Barbarians, and one gets the impression they'll struggle on tour against organised defensive units and packs with greater cohesion and mongrel. Wales will provide just that on Saturday.
The Welsh may not have a great record against southern hemisphere opposition, but they have enough to claim a win against a disorganised Wallabies team this weekend. You can back them on the 'cap (to win by three or more points) at a generous 19/10.
Ireland vs South Africa
The Boks have been installed as favourites for this one, but I'm not so sure. Their record in Dublin suggests the result here isn't as clear cut as the Irish media have suggested. They've spent the week talking up the Boks, while downplaying the Irish chances and the bookies have reacted.
All this means is that there's value for those willing to exploit it. The Boks are rated seven points better than Ireland, a winning margin they haven't experienced in Ireland since 2000. Ireland finished third in the Six Nations that year, with England putting 50 points on them at Twickenham.
This Irish side are the current Six Nations champions and pushed the All Blacks all the way last year. I'm backing them to finish within seven points, which can be found at 9/10.
England vs New Zealand
England went down 3-0 in the June Tests, but that result hardly reflects how close that series was. A late Conrad Smith try helped the All Blacks across the line in the first Test, while a dazzling display from Ben Smith proved their undoing in the second. They'll fancy their chances on Saturday.
It was the English who were triumphant the last time these two met at Twickenham – one of only two losses the All Blacks have suffered since 2011. England will start strong, they always do in front of their home fans. However, injuries to their usually sound pack, coupled with the All Blacks' supreme depth, suggest only one outcome.
For those looking for value, you could do worse than the HT-FT double – England to lead at half-time and the All Blacks to triumph at 6/1. The more conservative among you can get the All Blacks to win by 7 points or more at 9/10.
Keo's weekend picks
Ireland (+6.5) 9/10
New Zealand (-6.5) 9/10
Wales (-2.5) 19/10
Treble odds 10/1
Photo: David Rogers/Getty Images
